EU – The devided Union

New self-confidence of small EU states

The strongest european country Germany shows weakness as we discussed before. Mrs. Merkel prefers beeing in countries far away because she is still adored there. Not so in Germany. 43% of the germans want her to step down (german: Focus)

France and Germany used to lead the EU and the other member states followed. Money always helped, if a country rebelled. But times change and young leaders like Sebastian Kurz from Austria and the italian secretary of the interiour Matteo Salvini want to get involved in the decisions. The latest example for this is the rejection of Merkels and Macrons plan of a new european budget. 12 EU countries signed a letter against the plan. Their simple but entitled question is: “What problem does this new budget solve? – We see no sense in it.” (german Focus)

Greece.

Greece was officially released from the rescue program on Friday. The Euro almost had crashed and the country has been broke but over 270 billion euro saved her. (german: Badische Zeitung)

That sounds good as long as you don’t look behind the facade. Economic data have been forged over many years and no one believes them now. Unemployment is still over 20%. High taxes make it difficult for start-ups to establish. Since the European Central Bank will stop buying state bonds, new money will get more expensive. Greece is a risky financial investment and so they will have to pay higher interest rates. I hope that Greece will make it but chances are that the next crisis is aroud the corner.

Global trade war will test EU unity

What is the final answer to the US tariffs? Will they promote a new EU, that builds a wall against immigrants and protects itself by own protective tariffs? Or will the globalists win? There are different opinions within the EU that could split the continent even more.

Dangers and possibilities

It seems to me that many countries got strong leaders in the last years: Putin, Trump, Kim Jong Un, Kurz, Netanyahu, Macron and Erdogan for example.  No matter what will happen with Germany’s chancellor in the near future, Germany will be without a strong leader. No party is strong enough to form a strong government. The EU as a whole is estranged. This is like a vacuum that longs for fulfillment. It could be that people say: “We need a strong leader whatever it takes.” So let us watch mindfully at the political developments.

 

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Trump against Merkel: Who is right?

US President Trump took Germany once more as a bad model for immigration policy and claims on Twitter that the crime rate in Germany rises. German newspapers are upset and accuse him of manipulation and misinformation (german: Stern)

What is right now? Does the crime rate go up or is it on a historic low?

If Trump and Merkel were my children, I would say: you are both right. It is necessary at this point to have a closer look at the official crime statistics.

Here you find the development of the crime numbers on the official BKA homepage (german).

First: the total crime numbers in 2017 went down 10% since 2016

Second: there are some incredible decreases within the last 2-3 years and you can ask yourself if that can be true.

  • robberies on streets: the lowest numbers since 1990. Decrease from 21.349 in 2013 to 16.233 in 2017 (line 1667) while the percentage of foreigners increased from 32.3% to 40.2%
  • The numbers for trafficking for the purpose of sexual exploitation went down from 284 in 2016 to 71 in 2017 (line 2452)
  • professional trafficking for the purpose of sexual exploitation went down from 93 in 2016 to 8 in 2017 (percentage of foreigeners 94.4% – line 2491). Could it be that german authorities don’t accuse immigrants and throw those cases out of the statistics?
  • a fluctuation of numbers that has never happened before is the decrease of thefts from restaurants from 35.002 in 2016 to 29.472 in 2017 (line 2920)
  • numbers of load thefts reach an all-time low. Ask the shopkeepers in big towns and you will see that this is not true. They don’t tell the police about the thefts because the robbers stand in the shop again after they have been 2 hours at the police station. It just makes no sense to inform the police.

Third: If you look at the official numbers you find all-time highs of crime numbers like extortion on a sexual basis (line 6843), resistence to the state (in 2016 & 2017 – line 6873), domestic disturbances (line 6936), drug-related offenses (line 9987) and computer crime (line 11446). These are indeed frightening numbers.

As with many other questions the answer is not just yes or no. If people tell you what you should think, it is better to study the sources yourself and compare different views.

Merkel and Trump are mighty world leaders. Their interests are quite different and according to their interest they present their facts to the public.

 

 

German politics in the shadow of the World Cup

Stunning facts you could read in german newspapers in the last days

Censorship?

The supposedly independent German Cultural Council recommends to stop all talk shows for fear of the populists.

(german: Deutscher Kulturrat)

Feed themselves

The monthly diets of the deputies will increase to 9780 Euro from July.

(german: rp-online)

Feed themselves

Quick law change: 25.000.000 more Euros for the parties in the parliament.

(german: Handelsblatt)

Long refused

Merkel promises french prime minister Macron to install a new european money pot.

(german: Frankfurter Allgemeine)

Chaos could help to create a new european order

One could think that the chaos around us is created intentionally in order to create a european super world power. A lot of people fear that option and they are right. The european leaders are not democratically elected and only responsible to their lobbyists. It is a high-paid and corrupt bunch of politicians, often pushed to the european government in order to get rid of them nationally.

To overcome these mental reservations you need a crisis, a chaos, a crash. When everybody is scared, politicians can easily sell the idea of a new order.

It took us an exceptional long time to form a new government in Germany after the elections last year. We germans don’t like unsecurity at all. Now the government threatens to fly apart and fear emerges. “Go ahead Merkel and form your european budget!” we shout. We forget about the warning words about uncontrollable expenses and depts. Our former finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble said, that it makes no sense to spread the money and have no common government in the euro zone. Every country can throw the money out of the window and no one cares.  Now this step seems possible. The struggle with the CSU urges Angela Merkel to find a european solution. That’s what she wants to do anyway and Seehofer helps her with his 2-weeks-deadline.

Why did the DDR collapse? Their elite lived in wealth and spent money that they didn’t have. The people were forced to keep a house book where they had to note every visit. Of cause the leaders censored the media. Opponents of the system ended up in jail.

Do you feel the similarities? Censorship in our TV and a new censorship in the internet (german: Netzwerkdurchsetzungsgesetz)

Bavaria even adopted a new police law that alows the police to close bank accounts, read letters and E-mails and put a person into electronic ankle cuffs if he COULD do a crime in the future. It is not nessecary that a person is already guilty or condemned (german: Netzpolitik)

 

 

 

How to buy a European Solution in 2 weeks

Why is it neccessary for Angela Merkel to find a “European Solution”?

As I said before, Angela Merkel isn’t the undisputed ruler any more. In a time when Germany urgently needs a stable government, her many law-breaks and unpopular decisions made her vulnerable.

Our european partners don’t like her either. Greece and Italy call her Hitler. Hungary, Austria and Poland reject her refugee policies. This lack of solidarity led to an unequal distribution of immigrants / refugees. Germany took as many refugees and immigrants as all the other european countries combined.

For the last 3 years she prevented tried to find a european solution for the immigrant crisis. Now her time is running out because her rebellios secretary of the interior wants to win the elections in october. He wants to appear assertive because his competitor party AfD is at his heels.

It will take 2 weeks to prepare a functioning border control. That is exactly the time Merkel has to negotiate and come to result that is as good as Seehofers masterplan. Anything less is not enough. That also means that her negotiating position is weak and she could be blackmailable.

How could she achieve a solution?

As the time is short and the pressure high she will be ready to accept almost every compromise with our european partners. This, of cause will be expensive – not for Merkel – but for us german taxpayers.

The European countries don’t like us but they like our money. The french prime minister for example wants a european finance minister, so that german money can easier be transferred to other countries. That could be an option for Merkel to make concessions.

Greece wants to have a debt relief. There are also financial demands from the Nazi era. Cancel the depts and give some money and Greece will surly help Merkel out of her misery.

Italy has a new populistic government and their banks are on the brink of collapse. A little money will surely help them to take some immigrants from germany back.

The question is: What if Germany overestimates herself? What if Germany fails? Who is able to save her?

A european solution is almost impossible to reach within 2 weeks because every state has to agree. What she could achieve are bilateral solutions with some countries.

Talk Show host Anne Will is not allowed to discuss the government crisis

Anne Will was willing to interrupt her holiday to make a panel about the actual conflict. Usually Anne Will invites politicians to discuss currents events. Anne Will and her company tried hard to send the show. The TV-station ARD is financed by a forced charge and has to educate the people. In this case however, the ARD thought that the best education is to show a thriller rather than a controversial political discussion. (german: Der Spiegel)

Is it just coincidence that the responsible NDR Board of Directors consists of people from the CSU opponents CDU and SPD? (SPD: Silva Seeler, CDU: Regina Möller – Board of Directors)

German Government Crisis

Government parties CSU and CDU give press conference – in different places!

Merkel in Berlin and Seehofer in Munich received the press at 2 pm. Merkel didn’t answer the question that everybody wants to know: Would she fire Seehofer if he implements his full aslym masterplan? That would mean the end of the current government.

None of the government parties (CDU, CSU and SPD) desires new elections, because all 3 lost tremendously in the last months and had not the majority in the parliament in the case of new elections. (Forsa)

The whole theater could also be a trick to convince the SPD to agree to a stricter immigration policy. The SPD is extremly immigrant-friendly and would never accept tougher politics. But to avoid that the whole government flies apart, she might be willing.

Even chancellor Merkel now supports tougher immigration politics (62 of 63 of Seehofers masterplan points). But she still insists on a european solution and rejects a solo action of Germany. Her goal is “to reduce, control and arrange (note from me: arrange not stop!) illegal immigration” (19:18 in Live Stream Die Welt).

This isn’t enough for the home secretary Seehofer (Press conference youtube). In 2 weeks, when Angela Merkel will be back from the EU summit they will talk with each other and Merkel will have to report her EU achievements.  If they don’t match the masterplan of Seehofer, he will act and send the police to the border. In the press conference this sounds pretty clear. Seehofer also sais that his masterplan – he didn’t publish it yet – contains a lot of explosive material. This is the point where Merkel strictly disagrees and she will use her power as chancellor to correct him. (she said this indirectly when she insists that she still has the power to do so).

Back to Weimar Republic?

The fronts between the two are hardened. What would be the best scenario? The best thing would be if Merkel rethinks her immigration policy. Another option is that Seehofer rows back from his position as he did many times before.

A political earthquake however would be this:

  • Merkel can not convince our european partners of a common immigration solution (very likely to happen since she didn’t achieve it during the last 3 years)
  • Seehofer sends german police to the border and implements his full masterplan
  • Merkel uses her power to instruct him not to do so
  • Seehofer does it anyway
  • Merkel fires her minister
  • government parties CDU and CSU split their union
  • Merkel steps down
  • new elections in Germany
  • result: 7 parties in the parliament (CSU, CDU, SPD, AfD, Grüne, FDP, Linke), none of them has a majority or can easily form one
  • lack of political stability, similar to the weimar republic (10 parties)

 

 

Please prepare for the crisis

The signs for the next crisis multiply

Some people long for a crash and think that a “reset” could bring relief for our corrupt and suffering world. The chaos and the monetary devaluation would bring the proud world and  our disgusting bosses down and we would be free at last.

The truth is that nobody can prepare adiquatly for the things that are about to come. As a christian I say: find Jesus as long as there is still time. He is the strong fortress in the middle of a waving sea.

Some preparations could be helpful for everybody if the system breaks down:

  • stay in touch and help each other
  • reduce your dept as much as possible
  • have some food and water at home
  • stay away from the wild crowd
  • be informed and study various sources
  • care for your body (activity and good food)

You may ask why I expect a crisis – or better: a crash in the very near future

The FED and the European Central Bank tightened their monetary policy in the last week which is good. But people and nations always need more money to pay back their old depts. House and car sellers depend on the willingness of their customers to borrow money, otherwise nobody could afford their products.

The concrete signs are:

  • FED interest rates as high as 2008 (before the financial crisis) with more increase ahead
  • ECB will stop buying government bonds in december
  • groth of global dept , especially in the western hemosphere (Government dept)
  • Global growth is expected to edge down over the next two years according to the World Bank
  • global power relationships are changing
  • more weapons around the world
  • unpredictable world leaders
Many people like to believe that things won’t change, including me. It is a scary thing to face reality. On the other hand: You are ready to prepare if you know at least vaguely what’s coming.

Historical crisis in german government

(Süddeutsche Zeitung)

Great events throw their shadows ahead

Usually the CSU follows her bigger sister CDU but now she rebels openly against the current chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU). The CSU has been part of the government for many years but she never did anything about the welcome culture of Angela Merkel.

Parteien BT

The great threat for the CSU is the election in Bavaria in october this year. According to actual polls the CSU will lose up to 7% of her votes to the AfD (Information in English). Since hundrets of thousands of immigrants have been coming to Germany the AfD wants to control the border. Most of the Germans want that, too. To get the votes back, the CSU stands up against Angela Merkel.

Angela Merkel follows her idea of unconditionally open borders and is not willing to follow german and european laws. Our home secretary, Horst Seehofer, CSU, made it clear, that he will use his power as a minister and control the border even against Merkel’s will. The consequence would most likely be that Merkel will fire her minister then. But look, she needs the CSU to stay chancellor. If she fires her minister, the CSU might not be willing to form a union with the CDU any more.

The coalition between the government parties is already weak but now this situation could lead to a coalition break and to a break of the government. To make things worse, other leaders of Merkel’s party support Seehofer and the CSU. Angela Merkel’s throne is shaking. As her position weakens many call for her resignation.