New self-confidence of small EU states
The strongest european country Germany shows weakness as we discussed before. Mrs. Merkel prefers beeing in countries far away because she is still adored there. Not so in Germany. 43% of the germans want her to step down (german: Focus)
France and Germany used to lead the EU and the other member states followed. Money always helped, if a country rebelled. But times change and young leaders like Sebastian Kurz from Austria and the italian secretary of the interiour Matteo Salvini want to get involved in the decisions. The latest example for this is the rejection of Merkels and Macrons plan of a new european budget. 12 EU countries signed a letter against the plan. Their simple but entitled question is: “What problem does this new budget solve? – We see no sense in it.” (german Focus)
Greece was officially released from the rescue program on Friday. The Euro almost had crashed and the country has been broke but over 270 billion euro saved her. (german: Badische Zeitung)
That sounds good as long as you don’t look behind the facade. Economic data have been forged over many years and no one believes them now. Unemployment is still over 20%. High taxes make it difficult for start-ups to establish. Since the European Central Bank will stop buying state bonds, new money will get more expensive. Greece is a risky financial investment and so they will have to pay higher interest rates. I hope that Greece will make it but chances are that the next crisis is aroud the corner.
Global trade war will test EU unity
What is the final answer to the US tariffs? Will they promote a new EU, that builds a wall against immigrants and protects itself by own protective tariffs? Or will the globalists win? There are different opinions within the EU that could split the continent even more.
Dangers and possibilities
It seems to me that many countries got strong leaders in the last years: Putin, Trump, Kim Jong Un, Kurz, Netanyahu, Macron and Erdogan for example. No matter what will happen with Germany’s chancellor in the near future, Germany will be without a strong leader. No party is strong enough to form a strong government. The EU as a whole is estranged. This is like a vacuum that longs for fulfillment. It could be that people say: “We need a strong leader whatever it takes.” So let us watch mindfully at the political developments.