German Government Crisis

Government parties CSU and CDU give press conference – in different places!

Merkel in Berlin and Seehofer in Munich received the press at 2 pm. Merkel didn’t answer the question that everybody wants to know: Would she fire Seehofer if he implements his full aslym masterplan? That would mean the end of the current government.

None of the government parties (CDU, CSU and SPD) desires new elections, because all 3 lost tremendously in the last months and had not the majority in the parliament in the case of new elections. (Forsa)

The whole theater could also be a trick to convince the SPD to agree to a stricter immigration policy. The SPD is extremly immigrant-friendly and would never accept tougher politics. But to avoid that the whole government flies apart, she might be willing.

Even chancellor Merkel now supports tougher immigration politics (62 of 63 of Seehofers masterplan points). But she still insists on a european solution and rejects a solo action of Germany. Her goal is “to reduce, control and arrange (note from me: arrange not stop!) illegal immigration” (19:18 in Live Stream Die Welt).

This isn’t enough for the home secretary Seehofer (Press conference youtube). In 2 weeks, when Angela Merkel will be back from the EU summit they will talk with each other and Merkel will have to report her EU achievements.  If they don’t match the masterplan of Seehofer, he will act and send the police to the border. In the press conference this sounds pretty clear. Seehofer also sais that his masterplan – he didn’t publish it yet – contains a lot of explosive material. This is the point where Merkel strictly disagrees and she will use her power as chancellor to correct him. (she said this indirectly when she insists that she still has the power to do so).

Back to Weimar Republic?

The fronts between the two are hardened. What would be the best scenario? The best thing would be if Merkel rethinks her immigration policy. Another option is that Seehofer rows back from his position as he did many times before.

A political earthquake however would be this:

  • Merkel can not convince our european partners of a common immigration solution (very likely to happen since she didn’t achieve it during the last 3 years)
  • Seehofer sends german police to the border and implements his full masterplan
  • Merkel uses her power to instruct him not to do so
  • Seehofer does it anyway
  • Merkel fires her minister
  • government parties CDU and CSU split their union
  • Merkel steps down
  • new elections in Germany
  • result: 7 parties in the parliament (CSU, CDU, SPD, AfD, Grüne, FDP, Linke), none of them has a majority or can easily form one
  • lack of political stability, similar to the weimar republic (10 parties)

 

 

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Please prepare for the crisis

The signs for the next crisis multiply

Some people long for a crash and think that a “reset” could bring relief for our corrupt and suffering world. The chaos and the monetary devaluation would bring the proud world and  our disgusting bosses down and we would be free at last.

The truth is that nobody can prepare adiquatly for the things that are about to come. As a christian I say: find Jesus as long as there is still time. He is the strong fortress in the middle of a waving sea.

Some preparations could be helpful for everybody if the system breaks down:

  • stay in touch and help each other
  • reduce your dept as much as possible
  • have some food and water at home
  • stay away from the wild crowd
  • be informed and study various sources
  • care for your body (activity and good food)

You may ask why I expect a crisis – or better: a crash in the very near future

The FED and the European Central Bank tightened their monetary policy in the last week which is good. But people and nations always need more money to pay back their old depts. House and car sellers depend on the willingness of their customers to borrow money, otherwise nobody could afford their products.

The concrete signs are:

  • FED interest rates as high as 2008 (before the financial crisis) with more increase ahead
  • ECB will stop buying government bonds in december
  • groth of global dept , especially in the western hemosphere (Government dept)
  • Global growth is expected to edge down over the next two years according to the World Bank
  • global power relationships are changing
  • more weapons around the world
  • unpredictable world leaders
Many people like to believe that things won’t change, including me. It is a scary thing to face reality. On the other hand: You are ready to prepare if you know at least vaguely what’s coming.

Historical crisis in german government

(Süddeutsche Zeitung)

Great events throw their shadows ahead

Usually the CSU follows her bigger sister CDU but now she rebels openly against the current chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU). The CSU has been part of the government for many years but she never did anything about the welcome culture of Angela Merkel.

Parteien BT

The great threat for the CSU is the election in Bavaria in october this year. According to actual polls the CSU will lose up to 7% of her votes to the AfD (Information in English). Since hundrets of thousands of immigrants have been coming to Germany the AfD wants to control the border. Most of the Germans want that, too. To get the votes back, the CSU stands up against Angela Merkel.

Angela Merkel follows her idea of unconditionally open borders and is not willing to follow german and european laws. Our home secretary, Horst Seehofer, CSU, made it clear, that he will use his power as a minister and control the border even against Merkel’s will. The consequence would most likely be that Merkel will fire her minister then. But look, she needs the CSU to stay chancellor. If she fires her minister, the CSU might not be willing to form a union with the CDU any more.

The coalition between the government parties is already weak but now this situation could lead to a coalition break and to a break of the government. To make things worse, other leaders of Merkel’s party support Seehofer and the CSU. Angela Merkel’s throne is shaking. As her position weakens many call for her resignation.

 

 

 

 

What you need to know today

Will the global crash start in Germany soon?

There are signs that the financial system in Germany could crash in the next few months and cause another global crisis. This time could be much worse than the last time.

Disturbing news today

The ugly face of an emergency fusion of Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank occurs today again in german news (german: Die Welt). Both banks are totter candidates, both share prices declined since 2007: Commerzbank from 245.18 Euro to 9.32 Euro and Deutsche Bank from 79.84 Euro to 9.55 Euro. Deutsche Bank faces also expensive complaints in the USA and Australia. What would a fusion of those banks bring us? Nothing good, because zero plus zero stays zero. The german state is the biggest shareholder of the Commerzbank which is the forth-largest bank in our country and present in more than 50 nations (Wikipedia). If those two banks fail it would affect Germany first and hard and then spread around the world.

100.000 Euro savings deposit garanteed – REALLY?

We germans believe that Angela Merkel said the truth when she promised that our savings will be safe. But the bank fond that has to back 0.8% of the savings of their customers is half empty.  That means that in the case of another bank crisis savings could be lost (german: Der Spiegel).

Shocking drop in orders 

The german industrie notes it’s longest drop in orders since the global financial crises in 2008.  Originally the orders were expected to grow for 0.8% but the political and economic uncertainty pressed the order numbers down. (german: Handelsblatt) One of the main reasons are the fears of an international tradewar. The G7 summit is already called a G6+1 summit: on the one side US president Donald Trump and on the other hand Canada, Japan and the EU countries. They have their deepest conflict since WW2.

USA vulnerable and isolated – german policy influences german press

The press in Germany never liked Donald Trump. The background seems to be clear. People don’t trust the newspapers anymore and get their informations in the internet. But that also means that the media needs different ways to finance themselves. Mass media is therefore grateful that the german party SPD is financially deeply involved in their affairs (german: Presserecht) It is clear that the mass media that is partly financed by the left party SPD shares and prints her opinion.

The crazy fact is that the SPD herself is in deep trouble. Her politics are polluted with economic interests and the workers don’t see what the party is doing for them. Once the SPD was strongly represented in our Bundestag with 45.8% in 1972. Now they are only one among others with 20.5%.

Hit dogs bark and the SPD bites in panic every political enemy. This hits Donald Trump in the USA and the AfD in Germany that received a lot of votes from former SPD people. Long before the tradewar started the german press denigrated Mr. Trump. Now they are happy to have a real topic: the (quote Merkel:) illegal tariffs on steel and aluminum. The international mood is heated up because of Mr. Trumps withdrawal from the iran deal, from the climate agreement and his Israel politics.

You already can hear voices from the EU that they don’t need the USA any more. Agreements with other states would make them just as strong and stronger than the USA. Now what will happen if the USA really needs help and her current allies have turned away? This could be a real threat to the USA – because even the strongest nation on earth needs friends in a case of emergency.

Be prepared for a storm ahead and be careful if they say “Peace and prosperity everywhere”.