New self-confidence of small EU states
The strongest european country Germany shows weakness as we discussed before. Mrs. Merkel prefers beeing in countries far away because she is still adored there. Not so in Germany. 43% of the germans want her to step down (german: Focus)
France and Germany used to lead the EU and the other member states followed. Money always helped, if a country rebelled. But times change and young leaders like Sebastian Kurz from Austria and the italian secretary of the interiour Matteo Salvini want to get involved in the decisions. The latest example for this is the rejection of Merkels and Macrons plan of a new european budget. 12 EU countries signed a letter against the plan. Their simple but entitled question is: “What problem does this new budget solve? – We see no sense in it.” (german Focus)
Greece was officially released from the rescue program on Friday. The Euro almost had crashed and the country has been broke but over 270 billion euro saved her. (german: Badische Zeitung)
That sounds good as long as you don’t look behind the facade. Economic data have been forged over many years and no one believes them now. Unemployment is still over 20%. High taxes make it difficult for start-ups to establish. Since the European Central Bank will stop buying state bonds, new money will get more expensive. Greece is a risky financial investment and so they will have to pay higher interest rates. I hope that Greece will make it but chances are that the next crisis is aroud the corner.
Global trade war will test EU unity
What is the final answer to the US tariffs? Will they promote a new EU, that builds a wall against immigrants and protects itself by own protective tariffs? Or will the globalists win? There are different opinions within the EU that could split the continent even more.
Dangers and possibilities
It seems to me that many countries got strong leaders in the last years: Putin, Trump, Kim Jong Un, Kurz, Netanyahu, Macron and Erdogan for example. No matter what will happen with Germany’s chancellor in the near future, Germany will be without a strong leader. No party is strong enough to form a strong government. The EU as a whole is estranged. This is like a vacuum that longs for fulfillment. It could be that people say: “We need a strong leader whatever it takes.” So let us watch mindfully at the political developments.
Government parties CSU and CDU give press conference – in different places!
Merkel in Berlin and Seehofer in Munich received the press at 2 pm. Merkel didn’t answer the question that everybody wants to know: Would she fire Seehofer if he implements his full aslym masterplan? That would mean the end of the current government.
None of the government parties (CDU, CSU and SPD) desires new elections, because all 3 lost tremendously in the last months and had not the majority in the parliament in the case of new elections. (Forsa)
The whole theater could also be a trick to convince the SPD to agree to a stricter immigration policy. The SPD is extremly immigrant-friendly and would never accept tougher politics. But to avoid that the whole government flies apart, she might be willing.
Even chancellor Merkel now supports tougher immigration politics (62 of 63 of Seehofers masterplan points). But she still insists on a european solution and rejects a solo action of Germany. Her goal is “to reduce, control and arrange (note from me: arrange not stop!) illegal immigration” (19:18 in Live Stream Die Welt).
This isn’t enough for the home secretary Seehofer (Press conference youtube). In 2 weeks, when Angela Merkel will be back from the EU summit they will talk with each other and Merkel will have to report her EU achievements. If they don’t match the masterplan of Seehofer, he will act and send the police to the border. In the press conference this sounds pretty clear. Seehofer also sais that his masterplan – he didn’t publish it yet – contains a lot of explosive material. This is the point where Merkel strictly disagrees and she will use her power as chancellor to correct him. (she said this indirectly when she insists that she still has the power to do so).
Back to Weimar Republic?
The fronts between the two are hardened. What would be the best scenario? The best thing would be if Merkel rethinks her immigration policy. Another option is that Seehofer rows back from his position as he did many times before.
A political earthquake however would be this:
- Merkel can not convince our european partners of a common immigration solution (very likely to happen since she didn’t achieve it during the last 3 years)
- Seehofer sends german police to the border and implements his full masterplan
- Merkel uses her power to instruct him not to do so
- Seehofer does it anyway
- Merkel fires her minister
- government parties CDU and CSU split their union
- Merkel steps down
- new elections in Germany
- result: 7 parties in the parliament (CSU, CDU, SPD, AfD, Grüne, FDP, Linke), none of them has a majority or can easily form one
- lack of political stability, similar to the weimar republic (10 parties)
Great events throw their shadows ahead
Usually the CSU follows her bigger sister CDU but now she rebels openly against the current chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU). The CSU has been part of the government for many years but she never did anything about the welcome culture of Angela Merkel.
The great threat for the CSU is the election in Bavaria in october this year. According to actual polls the CSU will lose up to 7% of her votes to the AfD (Information in English). Since hundrets of thousands of immigrants have been coming to Germany the AfD wants to control the border. Most of the Germans want that, too. To get the votes back, the CSU stands up against Angela Merkel.
Angela Merkel follows her idea of unconditionally open borders and is not willing to follow german and european laws. Our home secretary, Horst Seehofer, CSU, made it clear, that he will use his power as a minister and control the border even against Merkel’s will. The consequence would most likely be that Merkel will fire her minister then. But look, she needs the CSU to stay chancellor. If she fires her minister, the CSU might not be willing to form a union with the CDU any more.
The coalition between the government parties is already weak but now this situation could lead to a coalition break and to a break of the government. To make things worse, other leaders of Merkel’s party support Seehofer and the CSU. Angela Merkel’s throne is shaking. As her position weakens many call for her resignation.