What you need to know today

Will the global crash start in Germany soon?

There are signs that the financial system in Germany could crash in the next few months and cause another global crisis. This time could be much worse than the last time.

Disturbing news today

The ugly face of an emergency fusion of Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank occurs today again in german news (german: Die Welt). Both banks are totter candidates, both share prices declined since 2007: Commerzbank from 245.18 Euro to 9.32 Euro and Deutsche Bank from 79.84 Euro to 9.55 Euro. Deutsche Bank faces also expensive complaints in the USA and Australia. What would a fusion of those banks bring us? Nothing good, because zero plus zero stays zero. The german state is the biggest shareholder of the Commerzbank which is the forth-largest bank in our country and present in more than 50 nations (Wikipedia). If those two banks fail it would affect Germany first and hard and then spread around the world.

100.000 Euro savings deposit garanteed – REALLY?

We germans believe that Angela Merkel said the truth when she promised that our savings will be safe. But the bank fond that has to back 0.8% of the savings of their customers is half empty.  That means that in the case of another bank crisis savings could be lost (german: Der Spiegel).

Shocking drop in orders 

The german industrie notes it’s longest drop in orders since the global financial crises in 2008.  Originally the orders were expected to grow for 0.8% but the political and economic uncertainty pressed the order numbers down. (german: Handelsblatt) One of the main reasons are the fears of an international tradewar. The G7 summit is already called a G6+1 summit: on the one side US president Donald Trump and on the other hand Canada, Japan and the EU countries. They have their deepest conflict since WW2.

USA vulnerable and isolated – german policy influences german press

The press in Germany never liked Donald Trump. The background seems to be clear. People don’t trust the newspapers anymore and get their informations in the internet. But that also means that the media needs different ways to finance themselves. Mass media is therefore grateful that the german party SPD is financially deeply involved in their affairs (german: Presserecht) It is clear that the mass media that is partly financed by the left party SPD shares and prints her opinion.

The crazy fact is that the SPD herself is in deep trouble. Her politics are polluted with economic interests and the workers don’t see what the party is doing for them. Once the SPD was strongly represented in our Bundestag with 45.8% in 1972. Now they are only one among others with 20.5%.

Hit dogs bark and the SPD bites in panic every political enemy. This hits Donald Trump in the USA and the AfD in Germany that received a lot of votes from former SPD people. Long before the tradewar started the german press denigrated Mr. Trump. Now they are happy to have a real topic: the (quote Merkel:) illegal tariffs on steel and aluminum. The international mood is heated up because of Mr. Trumps withdrawal from the iran deal, from the climate agreement and his Israel politics.

You already can hear voices from the EU that they don’t need the USA any more. Agreements with other states would make them just as strong and stronger than the USA. Now what will happen if the USA really needs help and her current allies have turned away? This could be a real threat to the USA – because even the strongest nation on earth needs friends in a case of emergency.

Be prepared for a storm ahead and be careful if they say “Peace and prosperity everywhere”.

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Crazy Friday

Yesterday’s news would normally spread over months. But when the coffee machine failes it is very likely that out of sympathy the washing machine strikes also.rock-chick-1600436

Deutsche Bank seriously injured

Our biggest bank suffers her lowest share prices ever. On friday they fell below 10 Euros for the first time in history.

Deutsche Bank changed only recently her chief executive officer (CEO).  The new man is Christian Sewing who already started to fire 10.000 employees according to german newspapers (in german: Die Zeit and Stuttgarter Zeitung).

These are bad news for Germany and could also affect other countries worldwide. Deutsche Bank has the honour of beeing the most dangerous bank in the world in terms of harm that she can do to international banks in the case of another financial crisis (german: Die Zeit).

Remember that the European dept crisis is anything but over. The European Central Bank only buyes bad government loans in order to keep our member countries liquid. Like the Baron Münchhausen we try to pull ourselves out of the swamp by our own hair. Of cause many countries do that. But that doesn’t make it better.

Spain fires Prime Minister

That should not affect us very much but is worth to be mentioned. The firered prime minister Rajoy was not very smart when a part of Spain, Catalonia, voted for their independence last year. He called the saparatists criminals and put some of their leaders in jail.

On friday he lost a no-confidence vote in Madrid and had to step down because of a big corruption scandal. The party of the new prime minister Pedro Sánchez has no majority in the parliament. To become prime minister he needed the votes of the separatists.  How will he handle the Catalonian question in the future? Can he prevent that Spain falls apart? He seems to have no real political goals except the power. (in german: Handelsblatt)

Premiere in Italy – 2 eurocritical parties take the lead

The country that sits on a third of europs lazy loans has a revolutionary new government since Friday. According to their program they want to increase the country’s spendings instead of reducing them. This is easy to understand since the economy is weak and a quater of the young people under 34 is unemployed. There have to be investments to make the economy grow.

In Brussels are strong concerns about this new kind of policy. Who will pay for the investment program? Will there be a new European dept crisis? What if Italy doesn’t follow Merkel’s “suggestions”? (sources in german: SPON and Euronews)

Tradewar Day 1 – 25% steel tariffs in place

Yes, that too happened on friday. US president Trump carried out his threat of imposing high steel and aluminium tariffs on his closest allies. Canada and the EU already announced that they will not accept this move and will impose their own tariffs on US products. (BBC)

Mistrust and tensions between the nations seem to rise. Simply watch this video of the canadian prime minister Trudeau and you can feel the confusion:

Tensions rise for sure. See what the german newspaper “Die Welt” reports:

30.000 more soldiers under Nato and German control

They will have hundreds of warplanes and warships to fight back “a possible russian attack”. The previous number of 20.000 soldiers will be more than doubled. A new NATO headquater will be built in Ulm, Germany. (in german: Die Welt and Süddeutsche Zeitung) I don’t like the thought. Do you know, that Germany arms the police with 17-tons-tanks? They are currently discussing the use of machine guns. (in german: Morgenpost) Where will this development lead us to?