EU – The devided Union

New self-confidence of small EU states

The strongest european country Germany shows weakness as we discussed before. Mrs. Merkel prefers beeing in countries far away because she is still adored there. Not so in Germany. 43% of the germans want her to step down (german: Focus)

France and Germany used to lead the EU and the other member states followed. Money always helped, if a country rebelled. But times change and young leaders like Sebastian Kurz from Austria and the italian secretary of the interiour Matteo Salvini want to get involved in the decisions. The latest example for this is the rejection of Merkels and Macrons plan of a new european budget. 12 EU countries signed a letter against the plan. Their simple but entitled question is: “What problem does this new budget solve? – We see no sense in it.” (german Focus)

Greece.

Greece was officially released from the rescue program on Friday. The Euro almost had crashed and the country has been broke but over 270 billion euro saved her. (german: Badische Zeitung)

That sounds good as long as you don’t look behind the facade. Economic data have been forged over many years and no one believes them now. Unemployment is still over 20%. High taxes make it difficult for start-ups to establish. Since the European Central Bank will stop buying state bonds, new money will get more expensive. Greece is a risky financial investment and so they will have to pay higher interest rates. I hope that Greece will make it but chances are that the next crisis is aroud the corner.

Global trade war will test EU unity

What is the final answer to the US tariffs? Will they promote a new EU, that builds a wall against immigrants and protects itself by own protective tariffs? Or will the globalists win? There are different opinions within the EU that could split the continent even more.

Dangers and possibilities

It seems to me that many countries got strong leaders in the last years: Putin, Trump, Kim Jong Un, Kurz, Netanyahu, Macron and Erdogan for example.  No matter what will happen with Germany’s chancellor in the near future, Germany will be without a strong leader. No party is strong enough to form a strong government. The EU as a whole is estranged. This is like a vacuum that longs for fulfillment. It could be that people say: “We need a strong leader whatever it takes.” So let us watch mindfully at the political developments.

 

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How to buy a European Solution in 2 weeks

Why is it neccessary for Angela Merkel to find a “European Solution”?

As I said before, Angela Merkel isn’t the undisputed ruler any more. In a time when Germany urgently needs a stable government, her many law-breaks and unpopular decisions made her vulnerable.

Our european partners don’t like her either. Greece and Italy call her Hitler. Hungary, Austria and Poland reject her refugee policies. This lack of solidarity led to an unequal distribution of immigrants / refugees. Germany took as many refugees and immigrants as all the other european countries combined.

For the last 3 years she prevented tried to find a european solution for the immigrant crisis. Now her time is running out because her rebellios secretary of the interior wants to win the elections in october. He wants to appear assertive because his competitor party AfD is at his heels.

It will take 2 weeks to prepare a functioning border control. That is exactly the time Merkel has to negotiate and come to result that is as good as Seehofers masterplan. Anything less is not enough. That also means that her negotiating position is weak and she could be blackmailable.

How could she achieve a solution?

As the time is short and the pressure high she will be ready to accept almost every compromise with our european partners. This, of cause will be expensive – not for Merkel – but for us german taxpayers.

The European countries don’t like us but they like our money. The french prime minister for example wants a european finance minister, so that german money can easier be transferred to other countries. That could be an option for Merkel to make concessions.

Greece wants to have a debt relief. There are also financial demands from the Nazi era. Cancel the depts and give some money and Greece will surly help Merkel out of her misery.

Italy has a new populistic government and their banks are on the brink of collapse. A little money will surely help them to take some immigrants from germany back.

The question is: What if Germany overestimates herself? What if Germany fails? Who is able to save her?

A european solution is almost impossible to reach within 2 weeks because every state has to agree. What she could achieve are bilateral solutions with some countries.

Talk Show host Anne Will is not allowed to discuss the government crisis

Anne Will was willing to interrupt her holiday to make a panel about the actual conflict. Usually Anne Will invites politicians to discuss currents events. Anne Will and her company tried hard to send the show. The TV-station ARD is financed by a forced charge and has to educate the people. In this case however, the ARD thought that the best education is to show a thriller rather than a controversial political discussion. (german: Der Spiegel)

Is it just coincidence that the responsible NDR Board of Directors consists of people from the CSU opponents CDU and SPD? (SPD: Silva Seeler, CDU: Regina Möller – Board of Directors)

German Government Crisis

Government parties CSU and CDU give press conference – in different places!

Merkel in Berlin and Seehofer in Munich received the press at 2 pm. Merkel didn’t answer the question that everybody wants to know: Would she fire Seehofer if he implements his full aslym masterplan? That would mean the end of the current government.

None of the government parties (CDU, CSU and SPD) desires new elections, because all 3 lost tremendously in the last months and had not the majority in the parliament in the case of new elections. (Forsa)

The whole theater could also be a trick to convince the SPD to agree to a stricter immigration policy. The SPD is extremly immigrant-friendly and would never accept tougher politics. But to avoid that the whole government flies apart, she might be willing.

Even chancellor Merkel now supports tougher immigration politics (62 of 63 of Seehofers masterplan points). But she still insists on a european solution and rejects a solo action of Germany. Her goal is “to reduce, control and arrange (note from me: arrange not stop!) illegal immigration” (19:18 in Live Stream Die Welt).

This isn’t enough for the home secretary Seehofer (Press conference youtube). In 2 weeks, when Angela Merkel will be back from the EU summit they will talk with each other and Merkel will have to report her EU achievements.  If they don’t match the masterplan of Seehofer, he will act and send the police to the border. In the press conference this sounds pretty clear. Seehofer also sais that his masterplan – he didn’t publish it yet – contains a lot of explosive material. This is the point where Merkel strictly disagrees and she will use her power as chancellor to correct him. (she said this indirectly when she insists that she still has the power to do so).

Back to Weimar Republic?

The fronts between the two are hardened. What would be the best scenario? The best thing would be if Merkel rethinks her immigration policy. Another option is that Seehofer rows back from his position as he did many times before.

A political earthquake however would be this:

  • Merkel can not convince our european partners of a common immigration solution (very likely to happen since she didn’t achieve it during the last 3 years)
  • Seehofer sends german police to the border and implements his full masterplan
  • Merkel uses her power to instruct him not to do so
  • Seehofer does it anyway
  • Merkel fires her minister
  • government parties CDU and CSU split their union
  • Merkel steps down
  • new elections in Germany
  • result: 7 parties in the parliament (CSU, CDU, SPD, AfD, Grüne, FDP, Linke), none of them has a majority or can easily form one
  • lack of political stability, similar to the weimar republic (10 parties)

 

 

What you need to know today

Will the global crash start in Germany soon?

There are signs that the financial system in Germany could crash in the next few months and cause another global crisis. This time could be much worse than the last time.

Disturbing news today

The ugly face of an emergency fusion of Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank occurs today again in german news (german: Die Welt). Both banks are totter candidates, both share prices declined since 2007: Commerzbank from 245.18 Euro to 9.32 Euro and Deutsche Bank from 79.84 Euro to 9.55 Euro. Deutsche Bank faces also expensive complaints in the USA and Australia. What would a fusion of those banks bring us? Nothing good, because zero plus zero stays zero. The german state is the biggest shareholder of the Commerzbank which is the forth-largest bank in our country and present in more than 50 nations (Wikipedia). If those two banks fail it would affect Germany first and hard and then spread around the world.

100.000 Euro savings deposit garanteed – REALLY?

We germans believe that Angela Merkel said the truth when she promised that our savings will be safe. But the bank fond that has to back 0.8% of the savings of their customers is half empty.  That means that in the case of another bank crisis savings could be lost (german: Der Spiegel).

Shocking drop in orders 

The german industrie notes it’s longest drop in orders since the global financial crises in 2008.  Originally the orders were expected to grow for 0.8% but the political and economic uncertainty pressed the order numbers down. (german: Handelsblatt) One of the main reasons are the fears of an international tradewar. The G7 summit is already called a G6+1 summit: on the one side US president Donald Trump and on the other hand Canada, Japan and the EU countries. They have their deepest conflict since WW2.

USA vulnerable and isolated – german policy influences german press

The press in Germany never liked Donald Trump. The background seems to be clear. People don’t trust the newspapers anymore and get their informations in the internet. But that also means that the media needs different ways to finance themselves. Mass media is therefore grateful that the german party SPD is financially deeply involved in their affairs (german: Presserecht) It is clear that the mass media that is partly financed by the left party SPD shares and prints her opinion.

The crazy fact is that the SPD herself is in deep trouble. Her politics are polluted with economic interests and the workers don’t see what the party is doing for them. Once the SPD was strongly represented in our Bundestag with 45.8% in 1972. Now they are only one among others with 20.5%.

Hit dogs bark and the SPD bites in panic every political enemy. This hits Donald Trump in the USA and the AfD in Germany that received a lot of votes from former SPD people. Long before the tradewar started the german press denigrated Mr. Trump. Now they are happy to have a real topic: the (quote Merkel:) illegal tariffs on steel and aluminum. The international mood is heated up because of Mr. Trumps withdrawal from the iran deal, from the climate agreement and his Israel politics.

You already can hear voices from the EU that they don’t need the USA any more. Agreements with other states would make them just as strong and stronger than the USA. Now what will happen if the USA really needs help and her current allies have turned away? This could be a real threat to the USA – because even the strongest nation on earth needs friends in a case of emergency.

Be prepared for a storm ahead and be careful if they say “Peace and prosperity everywhere”.

Sunday thoughts

bridge-53769Merkel meets Netanyahu in Berlin

Today Benjamin Netanyahu, prime minister of Israel,  brings our capital Berlin to a halt. He is expected to meet chancellor Angela Merkel tomorrow afternoon to talk with her about the Iran Deal. The chancellors heart beates for the Muslims in the first place and it could be a challenge for Israel to be heard. Two votes in the UN Security Council last week have shown that most of the worlds countries have decided to support the Islam rather than the christians or the jews. Do they realize what relentless and violent world they help to create? I earnestly hope that the meeting tomorrow will go well and our chancellor will have an open mind.

Update Monday: 

How do you congratulate a close friend to his 70. birthday? You go to him with a present, write him a nice letter, at least call him, right? 

But not so Angela Merkel. She didn’t congratulate Israel in an open statement or visit Israel at her 70. anniversary neither did she nor any other german representative show up when the USA moved her ambassy to Israels capital Jerusalem. But see how she handels a 70. anniversary instead (emphasis by me, the translation in the video is not correct at this point):

“I find it very important and symbolic, too, that we – in this year when Israel celebrates her 70. anniversary and WE COULD NOT ONLY CONGRATULATE OURSELVES from the distance and WE NOT ONLY HAD A DEBATE in the German Bundestag, but that the Prime Minister is here with us today, too….”

Congratulate ourselves… how does that work? And yes, we had a debate in the bundestag but how does this benefit Israel? 

Netanyahu and Merkel have different opinions in regard of the Iran deal, Germany condamns the statement of the iranian leaders that Israel be a cancer that should be cut off and Germany wants to continue the cooperation with Israel.

Shadows Of The Past

“Forget about the past!” “It is not our business what our ancestors did!” Most people seem to follow these suggestions very well. I can’t.

I used to travel a lot. In every foreign country people started talking about Nazi Germany when they learned that I was german. I was in a fishing museum in South England and there I saw pictures of fishermen who were killed by the Germans. The topic pops up unexpectedly in movies and conversations. I feel the anger and the sadness of the people who lost their relatives and friends.

There are many things I don’t understand until now. What motivated human beings to commit crimes on such a large scale, how was it possible in a civilized society? Could it happen again?

As I started reading biographies pain began to fill my heard. History became alive. Little children, old men and women, parents – tortured and murdered officially by the german state by the millions. I watched the Auschwitz processes that took place in Frankfurt 1963 – 1965 and went deep into it. It is hard to describe, but I actually saw through the eyes of the killers because I know the places where they lived, I love the same music they loved and they spoke the language that I speak – and so on.

There is no anwer to the question: How can Germany bear such a guilt? It is impossible. We live, love and laugh today, because an amazing God decided that we should do so.

There was another important thing for me to learn. It was in the year 1999. After a 2 weeks holiday trip in Ireland I gave back my rental car and the man didn’t even check it. I wondered why he trusted me so much. His answer: “The Germans are highly respected in Ireland. I know that everything is all right because you say so.”

Very slowly I realized that Germany is important, strong and a business partner for countries around the world. So: How should I feel as a german? Proud and confident? or humiliated by the crimes of my forefathers? Or everything at the same time?

I like this satirical video because it expresses our experience very well.

The context in which this video was made were the negotiations between Greece and Germany in the aftermath of the greek dept crisis.

What are your feelings and experiences? Please share them with us, we will enjoy it very much. No glorification of the Nazi regime please.