How to buy a European Solution in 2 weeks

Why is it neccessary for Angela Merkel to find a “European Solution”?

As I said before, Angela Merkel isn’t the undisputed ruler any more. In a time when Germany urgently needs a stable government, her many law-breaks and unpopular decisions made her vulnerable.

Our european partners don’t like her either. Greece and Italy call her Hitler. Hungary, Austria and Poland reject her refugee policies. This lack of solidarity led to an unequal distribution of immigrants / refugees. Germany took as many refugees and immigrants as all the other european countries combined.

For the last 3 years she prevented tried to find a european solution for the immigrant crisis. Now her time is running out because her rebellios secretary of the interior wants to win the elections in october. He wants to appear assertive because his competitor party AfD is at his heels.

It will take 2 weeks to prepare a functioning border control. That is exactly the time Merkel has to negotiate and come to result that is as good as Seehofers masterplan. Anything less is not enough. That also means that her negotiating position is weak and she could be blackmailable.

How could she achieve a solution?

As the time is short and the pressure high she will be ready to accept almost every compromise with our european partners. This, of cause will be expensive – not for Merkel – but for us german taxpayers.

The European countries don’t like us but they like our money. The french prime minister for example wants a european finance minister, so that german money can easier be transferred to other countries. That could be an option for Merkel to make concessions.

Greece wants to have a debt relief. There are also financial demands from the Nazi era. Cancel the depts and give some money and Greece will surly help Merkel out of her misery.

Italy has a new populistic government and their banks are on the brink of collapse. A little money will surely help them to take some immigrants from germany back.

The question is: What if Germany overestimates herself? What if Germany fails? Who is able to save her?

A european solution is almost impossible to reach within 2 weeks because every state has to agree. What she could achieve are bilateral solutions with some countries.

Talk Show host Anne Will is not allowed to discuss the government crisis

Anne Will was willing to interrupt her holiday to make a panel about the actual conflict. Usually Anne Will invites politicians to discuss currents events. Anne Will and her company tried hard to send the show. The TV-station ARD is financed by a forced charge and has to educate the people. In this case however, the ARD thought that the best education is to show a thriller rather than a controversial political discussion. (german: Der Spiegel)

Is it just coincidence that the responsible NDR Board of Directors consists of people from the CSU opponents CDU and SPD? (SPD: Silva Seeler, CDU: Regina Möller – Board of Directors)

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German Government Crisis

Government parties CSU and CDU give press conference – in different places!

Merkel in Berlin and Seehofer in Munich received the press at 2 pm. Merkel didn’t answer the question that everybody wants to know: Would she fire Seehofer if he implements his full aslym masterplan? That would mean the end of the current government.

None of the government parties (CDU, CSU and SPD) desires new elections, because all 3 lost tremendously in the last months and had not the majority in the parliament in the case of new elections. (Forsa)

The whole theater could also be a trick to convince the SPD to agree to a stricter immigration policy. The SPD is extremly immigrant-friendly and would never accept tougher politics. But to avoid that the whole government flies apart, she might be willing.

Even chancellor Merkel now supports tougher immigration politics (62 of 63 of Seehofers masterplan points). But she still insists on a european solution and rejects a solo action of Germany. Her goal is “to reduce, control and arrange (note from me: arrange not stop!) illegal immigration” (19:18 in Live Stream Die Welt).

This isn’t enough for the home secretary Seehofer (Press conference youtube). In 2 weeks, when Angela Merkel will be back from the EU summit they will talk with each other and Merkel will have to report her EU achievements.  If they don’t match the masterplan of Seehofer, he will act and send the police to the border. In the press conference this sounds pretty clear. Seehofer also sais that his masterplan – he didn’t publish it yet – contains a lot of explosive material. This is the point where Merkel strictly disagrees and she will use her power as chancellor to correct him. (she said this indirectly when she insists that she still has the power to do so).

Back to Weimar Republic?

The fronts between the two are hardened. What would be the best scenario? The best thing would be if Merkel rethinks her immigration policy. Another option is that Seehofer rows back from his position as he did many times before.

A political earthquake however would be this:

  • Merkel can not convince our european partners of a common immigration solution (very likely to happen since she didn’t achieve it during the last 3 years)
  • Seehofer sends german police to the border and implements his full masterplan
  • Merkel uses her power to instruct him not to do so
  • Seehofer does it anyway
  • Merkel fires her minister
  • government parties CDU and CSU split their union
  • Merkel steps down
  • new elections in Germany
  • result: 7 parties in the parliament (CSU, CDU, SPD, AfD, Grüne, FDP, Linke), none of them has a majority or can easily form one
  • lack of political stability, similar to the weimar republic (10 parties)

 

 

Historical crisis in german government

(Süddeutsche Zeitung)

Great events throw their shadows ahead

Usually the CSU follows her bigger sister CDU but now she rebels openly against the current chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU). The CSU has been part of the government for many years but she never did anything about the welcome culture of Angela Merkel.

Parteien BT

The great threat for the CSU is the election in Bavaria in october this year. According to actual polls the CSU will lose up to 7% of her votes to the AfD (Information in English). Since hundrets of thousands of immigrants have been coming to Germany the AfD wants to control the border. Most of the Germans want that, too. To get the votes back, the CSU stands up against Angela Merkel.

Angela Merkel follows her idea of unconditionally open borders and is not willing to follow german and european laws. Our home secretary, Horst Seehofer, CSU, made it clear, that he will use his power as a minister and control the border even against Merkel’s will. The consequence would most likely be that Merkel will fire her minister then. But look, she needs the CSU to stay chancellor. If she fires her minister, the CSU might not be willing to form a union with the CDU any more.

The coalition between the government parties is already weak but now this situation could lead to a coalition break and to a break of the government. To make things worse, other leaders of Merkel’s party support Seehofer and the CSU. Angela Merkel’s throne is shaking. As her position weakens many call for her resignation.