EU – The devided Union

New self-confidence of small EU states

The strongest european country Germany shows weakness as we discussed before. Mrs. Merkel prefers beeing in countries far away because she is still adored there. Not so in Germany. 43% of the germans want her to step down (german: Focus)

France and Germany used to lead the EU and the other member states followed. Money always helped, if a country rebelled. But times change and young leaders like Sebastian Kurz from Austria and the italian secretary of the interiour Matteo Salvini want to get involved in the decisions. The latest example for this is the rejection of Merkels and Macrons plan of a new european budget. 12 EU countries signed a letter against the plan. Their simple but entitled question is: “What problem does this new budget solve? – We see no sense in it.” (german Focus)

Greece.

Greece was officially released from the rescue program on Friday. The Euro almost had crashed and the country has been broke but over 270 billion euro saved her. (german: Badische Zeitung)

That sounds good as long as you don’t look behind the facade. Economic data have been forged over many years and no one believes them now. Unemployment is still over 20%. High taxes make it difficult for start-ups to establish. Since the European Central Bank will stop buying state bonds, new money will get more expensive. Greece is a risky financial investment and so they will have to pay higher interest rates. I hope that Greece will make it but chances are that the next crisis is aroud the corner.

Global trade war will test EU unity

What is the final answer to the US tariffs? Will they promote a new EU, that builds a wall against immigrants and protects itself by own protective tariffs? Or will the globalists win? There are different opinions within the EU that could split the continent even more.

Dangers and possibilities

It seems to me that many countries got strong leaders in the last years: Putin, Trump, Kim Jong Un, Kurz, Netanyahu, Macron and Erdogan for example.  No matter what will happen with Germany’s chancellor in the near future, Germany will be without a strong leader. No party is strong enough to form a strong government. The EU as a whole is estranged. This is like a vacuum that longs for fulfillment. It could be that people say: “We need a strong leader whatever it takes.” So let us watch mindfully at the political developments.

 

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Crazy Friday

Yesterday’s news would normally spread over months. But when the coffee machine failes it is very likely that out of sympathy the washing machine strikes also.rock-chick-1600436

Deutsche Bank seriously injured

Our biggest bank suffers her lowest share prices ever. On friday they fell below 10 Euros for the first time in history.

Deutsche Bank changed only recently her chief executive officer (CEO).  The new man is Christian Sewing who already started to fire 10.000 employees according to german newspapers (in german: Die Zeit and Stuttgarter Zeitung).

These are bad news for Germany and could also affect other countries worldwide. Deutsche Bank has the honour of beeing the most dangerous bank in the world in terms of harm that she can do to international banks in the case of another financial crisis (german: Die Zeit).

Remember that the European dept crisis is anything but over. The European Central Bank only buyes bad government loans in order to keep our member countries liquid. Like the Baron Münchhausen we try to pull ourselves out of the swamp by our own hair. Of cause many countries do that. But that doesn’t make it better.

Spain fires Prime Minister

That should not affect us very much but is worth to be mentioned. The firered prime minister Rajoy was not very smart when a part of Spain, Catalonia, voted for their independence last year. He called the saparatists criminals and put some of their leaders in jail.

On friday he lost a no-confidence vote in Madrid and had to step down because of a big corruption scandal. The party of the new prime minister Pedro Sánchez has no majority in the parliament. To become prime minister he needed the votes of the separatists.  How will he handle the Catalonian question in the future? Can he prevent that Spain falls apart? He seems to have no real political goals except the power. (in german: Handelsblatt)

Premiere in Italy – 2 eurocritical parties take the lead

The country that sits on a third of europs lazy loans has a revolutionary new government since Friday. According to their program they want to increase the country’s spendings instead of reducing them. This is easy to understand since the economy is weak and a quater of the young people under 34 is unemployed. There have to be investments to make the economy grow.

In Brussels are strong concerns about this new kind of policy. Who will pay for the investment program? Will there be a new European dept crisis? What if Italy doesn’t follow Merkel’s “suggestions”? (sources in german: SPON and Euronews)

Tradewar Day 1 – 25% steel tariffs in place

Yes, that too happened on friday. US president Trump carried out his threat of imposing high steel and aluminium tariffs on his closest allies. Canada and the EU already announced that they will not accept this move and will impose their own tariffs on US products. (BBC)

Mistrust and tensions between the nations seem to rise. Simply watch this video of the canadian prime minister Trudeau and you can feel the confusion:

Tensions rise for sure. See what the german newspaper “Die Welt” reports:

30.000 more soldiers under Nato and German control

They will have hundreds of warplanes and warships to fight back “a possible russian attack”. The previous number of 20.000 soldiers will be more than doubled. A new NATO headquater will be built in Ulm, Germany. (in german: Die Welt and Süddeutsche Zeitung) I don’t like the thought. Do you know, that Germany arms the police with 17-tons-tanks? They are currently discussing the use of machine guns. (in german: Morgenpost) Where will this development lead us to?