Trump against Merkel: Who is right?

US President Trump took Germany once more as a bad model for immigration policy and claims on Twitter that the crime rate in Germany rises. German newspapers are upset and accuse him of manipulation and misinformation (german: Stern)

What is right now? Does the crime rate go up or is it on a historic low?

If Trump and Merkel were my children, I would say: you are both right. It is necessary at this point to have a closer look at the official crime statistics.

Here you find the development of the crime numbers on the official BKA homepage (german).

First: the total crime numbers in 2017 went down 10% since 2016

Second: there are some incredible decreases within the last 2-3 years and you can ask yourself if that can be true.

  • robberies on streets: the lowest numbers since 1990. Decrease from 21.349 in 2013 to 16.233 in 2017 (line 1667) while the percentage of foreigners increased from 32.3% to 40.2%
  • The numbers for trafficking for the purpose of sexual exploitation went down from 284 in 2016 to 71 in 2017 (line 2452)
  • professional trafficking for the purpose of sexual exploitation went down from 93 in 2016 to 8 in 2017 (percentage of foreigeners 94.4% – line 2491). Could it be that german authorities don’t accuse immigrants and throw those cases out of the statistics?
  • a fluctuation of numbers that has never happened before is the decrease of thefts from restaurants from 35.002 in 2016 to 29.472 in 2017 (line 2920)
  • numbers of load thefts reach an all-time low. Ask the shopkeepers in big towns and you will see that this is not true. They don’t tell the police about the thefts because the robbers stand in the shop again after they have been 2 hours at the police station. It just makes no sense to inform the police.

Third: If you look at the official numbers you find all-time highs of crime numbers like extortion on a sexual basis (line 6843), resistence to the state (in 2016 & 2017 – line 6873), domestic disturbances (line 6936), drug-related offenses (line 9987) and computer crime (line 11446). These are indeed frightening numbers.

As with many other questions the answer is not just yes or no. If people tell you what you should think, it is better to study the sources yourself and compare different views.

Merkel and Trump are mighty world leaders. Their interests are quite different and according to their interest they present their facts to the public.

 

 

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From Sleep to Depression to Aggression

tiger-3264048 - KopieAfter – summet G7 – blues

Our chancellor Angela Merkel usually is like a high-quality teflon pan. You never see her angry, sad or passionate. Even terror attacs, substantial losses of votes or the European dept crises don’t touch her.

However this changed yesterday. Although there seems to be no anger about Donald Trump, you clearly feel that Angela Merkel is frustrated and depressed after the G7 summit in Canada (in german: Anne Will). What is depression? Right, it is suppressed anger. I guess there is a huge amount of anger. Remember the strengh of our car-lobby, remember Mercedes and BMW. Both are not pleased to live under the threat of tariffs on their products. Their voice is strong in our politics.

Mrs. Merkel is a diplomat and dares not to speak out openly against the US president.  But her position after Trump’s quote “disappointing, sobering and depressing withdrawal from the final summit agreement via twitter” shows her anger.

Anne Will: “Would you say that the times are definitely over when we could rely on the USA under Donald Trump?”

Angela Merkel: “I would not say ‘definetely’ …”

Last year after a Nato summit she said it the first time and repeated it yesterday in the interview:

Europe must become a strong pole as strong as China, Russia and the USA. Europe must become a global actor. There should be no arrangement between single countries within the EU with the various big poles of the world, that would ground down the EU.

Conclusion: “We don’t want to be pulled over the barrel time and again. We act now.” (quote Merkel) – The EU will try to build a stronger economic and strategic unity. Relationships with China, Russia, Japan, Canada and India will intensify in order to compensate the loss of the USA.

Merkel will not stop her efforts to talk with Donald Trump and to try to find a common basis. But, she sais, if this doesn’t work, you have to go your own way.

There are always changes in history and we seem to be at a critical juncture.

See what will happen on thursday!

mt-fuji-2232246

There is not only a supervolcano in Italy (english: Reuters) but there is also a financial volcano there. For years the European Central Bank is buying risky government bonds from Spain, Italy and other member states. Until now these papers add up to

2.710.000.000.000 USD) !

This procedure was and is highly controversial. What once was meant to save the Euro from the collapse became a problem itself. Countries became used to the cheap money. Some important people say that on thursday the European Central Bank could announce the end of the program. That would bring huge problems for the liquidity of the poorer EU countries. (german: General-Anzeiger and Der Spiegel)

Update Tuesday: Capital Flight 

As the “Süddeutsche Zeitung” (in german) reports today, the Italiens transfer about 1.18 billion USD abroad EACH DAY since May.

Italiens don’t trust their new government and fear a severe bank crisis in the land. In 2013 we saw such a scenario in the Euro-country Cyprus with strict capital controls  and bank closures (german: Der Spiegel). Italy is much bigger than Greece and her financial breakdown would be devestating. The italian leaders know this also and try to calm down the people.

What you need to know today

Will the global crash start in Germany soon?

There are signs that the financial system in Germany could crash in the next few months and cause another global crisis. This time could be much worse than the last time.

Disturbing news today

The ugly face of an emergency fusion of Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank occurs today again in german news (german: Die Welt). Both banks are totter candidates, both share prices declined since 2007: Commerzbank from 245.18 Euro to 9.32 Euro and Deutsche Bank from 79.84 Euro to 9.55 Euro. Deutsche Bank faces also expensive complaints in the USA and Australia. What would a fusion of those banks bring us? Nothing good, because zero plus zero stays zero. The german state is the biggest shareholder of the Commerzbank which is the forth-largest bank in our country and present in more than 50 nations (Wikipedia). If those two banks fail it would affect Germany first and hard and then spread around the world.

100.000 Euro savings deposit garanteed – REALLY?

We germans believe that Angela Merkel said the truth when she promised that our savings will be safe. But the bank fond that has to back 0.8% of the savings of their customers is half empty.  That means that in the case of another bank crisis savings could be lost (german: Der Spiegel).

Shocking drop in orders 

The german industrie notes it’s longest drop in orders since the global financial crises in 2008.  Originally the orders were expected to grow for 0.8% but the political and economic uncertainty pressed the order numbers down. (german: Handelsblatt) One of the main reasons are the fears of an international tradewar. The G7 summit is already called a G6+1 summit: on the one side US president Donald Trump and on the other hand Canada, Japan and the EU countries. They have their deepest conflict since WW2.

USA vulnerable and isolated – german policy influences german press

The press in Germany never liked Donald Trump. The background seems to be clear. People don’t trust the newspapers anymore and get their informations in the internet. But that also means that the media needs different ways to finance themselves. Mass media is therefore grateful that the german party SPD is financially deeply involved in their affairs (german: Presserecht) It is clear that the mass media that is partly financed by the left party SPD shares and prints her opinion.

The crazy fact is that the SPD herself is in deep trouble. Her politics are polluted with economic interests and the workers don’t see what the party is doing for them. Once the SPD was strongly represented in our Bundestag with 45.8% in 1972. Now they are only one among others with 20.5%.

Hit dogs bark and the SPD bites in panic every political enemy. This hits Donald Trump in the USA and the AfD in Germany that received a lot of votes from former SPD people. Long before the tradewar started the german press denigrated Mr. Trump. Now they are happy to have a real topic: the (quote Merkel:) illegal tariffs on steel and aluminum. The international mood is heated up because of Mr. Trumps withdrawal from the iran deal, from the climate agreement and his Israel politics.

You already can hear voices from the EU that they don’t need the USA any more. Agreements with other states would make them just as strong and stronger than the USA. Now what will happen if the USA really needs help and her current allies have turned away? This could be a real threat to the USA – because even the strongest nation on earth needs friends in a case of emergency.

Be prepared for a storm ahead and be careful if they say “Peace and prosperity everywhere”.