German Government Crisis

Government parties CSU and CDU give press conference – in different places!

Merkel in Berlin and Seehofer in Munich received the press at 2 pm. Merkel didn’t answer the question that everybody wants to know: Would she fire Seehofer if he implements his full aslym masterplan? That would mean the end of the current government.

None of the government parties (CDU, CSU and SPD) desires new elections, because all 3 lost tremendously in the last months and had not the majority in the parliament in the case of new elections. (Forsa)

The whole theater could also be a trick to convince the SPD to agree to a stricter immigration policy. The SPD is extremly immigrant-friendly and would never accept tougher politics. But to avoid that the whole government flies apart, she might be willing.

Even chancellor Merkel now supports tougher immigration politics (62 of 63 of Seehofers masterplan points). But she still insists on a european solution and rejects a solo action of Germany. Her goal is “to reduce, control and arrange (note from me: arrange not stop!) illegal immigration” (19:18 in Live Stream Die Welt).

This isn’t enough for the home secretary Seehofer (Press conference youtube). In 2 weeks, when Angela Merkel will be back from the EU summit they will talk with each other and Merkel will have to report her EU achievements.  If they don’t match the masterplan of Seehofer, he will act and send the police to the border. In the press conference this sounds pretty clear. Seehofer also sais that his masterplan – he didn’t publish it yet – contains a lot of explosive material. This is the point where Merkel strictly disagrees and she will use her power as chancellor to correct him. (she said this indirectly when she insists that she still has the power to do so).

Back to Weimar Republic?

The fronts between the two are hardened. What would be the best scenario? The best thing would be if Merkel rethinks her immigration policy. Another option is that Seehofer rows back from his position as he did many times before.

A political earthquake however would be this:

  • Merkel can not convince our european partners of a common immigration solution (very likely to happen since she didn’t achieve it during the last 3 years)
  • Seehofer sends german police to the border and implements his full masterplan
  • Merkel uses her power to instruct him not to do so
  • Seehofer does it anyway
  • Merkel fires her minister
  • government parties CDU and CSU split their union
  • Merkel steps down
  • new elections in Germany
  • result: 7 parties in the parliament (CSU, CDU, SPD, AfD, Grüne, FDP, Linke), none of them has a majority or can easily form one
  • lack of political stability, similar to the weimar republic (10 parties)

 

 

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